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Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:55:20 GMT

Hurricane Map

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

746 
FONT14 KNHC 150847
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Map

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:48:28 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 09:22:43 GMT

Hurricane Map

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Advisory Number 16

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

128 
WTNT24 KNHC 150846
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  92.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  93.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON KARL.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Map

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion Number 16

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

679 
WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl.  Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.  Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.
 
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 18.6N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Map

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

…KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 15
the center of Karl was located near 18.6, -93.0
with movement SW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Hurricane Map

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Public Advisory Number 16

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
  
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
is expected to dissipate tonight.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on heavy 
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Map

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Advisory Number 15

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150239
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  92.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  92.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Hurricane Map

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Discussion Number 15

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150240
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst 
faded earlier this afternoon.  Data from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a 
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt.  Therefore, the initial 
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl 
is now a tropical depression.  All global models agree the cyclone 
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of 
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.  
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a 
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.  
The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt.  Model guidance 
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow 
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so.  The 
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and 
dissipating inland by 36 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 19.1N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Depression Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

…KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.1, -92.8
with movement S at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Hurricane Map

Tropical Depression Karl Public Advisory Number 15

Jim Oct 15, 2022 comments off

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150240
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
ARE DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the
coast of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Karl.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h).  
A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate 
by early Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of
Campeche coast through Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 14, 2022 comments off

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.2, -92.6
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Hurricane Map

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14A

Jim Oct 14, 2022 comments off

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142357
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become
a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by 
early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 14, 2022 comments off

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.9
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Hurricane Map

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14

Jim Oct 14, 2022 comments off

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142037
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A 
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the 
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the 
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of 
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a
tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Map

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Jim Oct 14, 2022 comments off

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
decreased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for gradual development through the
weekend while the wave moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
Further development will become unlikely by early next week due to
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131155
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL 
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West.  Karl is 
moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slightly 
faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then  
expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay 
of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl 
should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico 
late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 
NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a 
minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches). 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also
expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Map

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Jim Oct 13, 2022 comments off

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
 
...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
southward to Roca Partida.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn
to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning.  On the forecast
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the
watch area on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:
 
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN

Hurricane Map

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Jim Oct 11, 2022 comments off

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Karl, located in the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 11, 2022 comments off

…KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 20.1, -94.8
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

Jim Oct 11, 2022 comments off

…KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 19.6, -94.4
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Hurricane Map

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 1

Jim Oct 11, 2022 comments off

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 112052
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
 
...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.  A gradual turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and
a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning.  On the 
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:
 
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

Hurricane Map

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 081747
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 80.5 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today and
then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday morning.
Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and move near
or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador
Sunday night and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a 
hurricane later today.  Weakening is forecast after the center moves 
inland over Nicaragua on Sunday, but Julia could still be at or near 
tropical storm strength when it moves near or along the Pacific 
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and 
Monday.  Julia is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday 
and dissipate by Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission 
indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, and
tropical storm conditions are beginning now.  Hurricane conditions 
are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane 
warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions 
beginning by tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the 
coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday 
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.  Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America later today into Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Map

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Jim Oct 08, 2022 comments off

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Julia, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 072031
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas.  A
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
Bluefields.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward motion 
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday 
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to 
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday 
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.  
Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over 
Central America by Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is 
expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over 
San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of 
Nicaragua.  Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland 
on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by 
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall 
accumulations through early Monday:
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...   
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, 
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 
inches, isolated 12 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides 
through this weekend. 
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Map

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

Jim Oct 07, 2022 comments off

…JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.