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Read More »Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
746 FONT14 KNHC 150847 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNRead More »
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:48:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 09:22:43 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
128 WTNT24 KNHC 150846 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. $$ FORECASTER BROWNRead More »
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
679 WTNT44 KNHC 150847 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not produced any organized deep convection since around midday yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning. Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight. Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today, and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico. The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this morning, and inland by later today. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster BrownRead More »
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 15
the center of Karl was located near 18.6, -93.0
with movement SW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected today, and the center of the low should move along the coast of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low is expected to dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service. $$ Forecaster BrownRead More »
Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
000 WTNT24 KNHC 150239 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCIRead More »
Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150240 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst faded earlier this afternoon. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl is now a tropical depression. All global models agree the cyclone will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities. The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a post-tropical remnant low within 12 h. The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt. Model guidance suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so. The NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and dissipating inland by 36 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster BucciRead More »
Summary for Tropical Depression Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.1, -92.8
with movement S at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Karl Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150240 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Karl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of Campeche coast through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster BucciRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.2, -92.6
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14A
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster BucciRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.9
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster ReinhartRead More »
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
decreased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for gradual development through the
weekend while the wave moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
Further development will become unlikely by early next week due to
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.8
with movement S at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY… …HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.4, -92.7
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
128 WTNT34 KNHC 141446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.7W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Coatzacoalcos to Alvarado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches) based on dropsonde data from the aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster ReinhartRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.9, -92.3
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141149 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 92.3 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster ReinhartRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.2, -92.4
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). The station at Cayo Arcas recently reported a pressure of 1005.2 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster BevenRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.4, -92.5
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster BevenRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.6, -92.8
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/BergRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -93.1
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10A
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 132355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/BergRead More »
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.9, -93.5
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 132035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster ReinhartRead More »