There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:55:20 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
746 FONT14 KNHC 150847 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
128 WTNT24 KNHC 150846 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
679 WTNT44 KNHC 150847 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not produced any organized deep convection since around midday yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning. Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight. Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today, and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico. The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this morning, and inland by later today. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 15
the center of Karl was located near 18.6, -93.0
with movement SW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected today, and the center of the low should move along the coast of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low is expected to dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
000 WTNT24 KNHC 150239 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150240 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst faded earlier this afternoon. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl is now a tropical depression. All global models agree the cyclone will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities. The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a post-tropical remnant low within 12 h. The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt. Model guidance suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so. The NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and dissipating inland by 36 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Depression Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.1, -92.8
with movement S at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Karl Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150240 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Karl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of Campeche coast through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.2, -92.6
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14A
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.9
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
decreased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for gradual development through the
weekend while the wave moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
Further development will become unlikely by early next week due to
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.8
with movement S at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY… …HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.4, -92.7
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
128 WTNT34 KNHC 141446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.7W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Coatzacoalcos to Alvarado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches) based on dropsonde data from the aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.9, -92.3
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141149 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 92.3 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.2, -92.4
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). The station at Cayo Arcas recently reported a pressure of 1005.2 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.4, -92.5
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.6, -92.8
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -93.1
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10A
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 132355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.9, -93.5
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 132035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.2, -93.7
with movement SSE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
930 WTNT34 KNHC 131745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 93.7 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so before Karl reaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.7, -93.9
with movement SSE at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 131443 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Alvarado eastward to Ciudad del Carmen. The Tropical Storm Watch north of Alvarado has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to gradually lose some strength later today or on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located just north of the center of Karl recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.1, -94.1
with movement SE at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 8A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 131155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130543
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.4
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.5, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 130532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 94.3W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.3 West. Karl is nearly stationary currently. A slow motion toward the southeast should begin later today, with Karl then expected to turn southward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 130233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 94.3W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Karl is nearly stationary. A slow motion toward the southeast should begin early Thursday, with Karl then expected to turn southward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected on Thursday, but Karl should gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.2
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6A
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 122353 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 94.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.2 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-southeast is expected to begin by Thursday morning. A faster generally southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and that motion should continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, Karl will approach the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by gradual weakening until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.2, -94.4
with movement N at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 122054 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 94.4W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-southeast is expected to begin by Thursday morning. A faster generally southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and that motion should continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by gradual weakening until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located about 30 miles east of the center of Karl recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER…
As of 12:35 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.0, -94.5
with movement N at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 121755 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.5 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow motion to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an increase to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast overnight followed by gradual weakening until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi/Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.7, -94.7
with movement N at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 121453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 94.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch eastward to Frontera. The Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Rojo to Tuxpan has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. Karl is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours followed by slight weakening before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.5, -94.8
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 3a
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 121156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the west and west-southwest is expected to begin later this morning and a somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Thursday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.1, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 120835 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 94.9W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the west and west-southwest is expected to begin this evening and a somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42055, located northeast of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 42 mph (68 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher terrain is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 2A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 120543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 94.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west and west-southwest is expected this evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 20.5, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112317
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Karl, located in the Bay of Campeche.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$
Forecaster Latto
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 20.1, -94.8
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)
…KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 19.6, -94.4
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 112052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 09 Oct 2022 21:35:30 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST… …RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -86.2
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 13A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
013 WTNT33 KNHC 091746 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, with a slightly slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening. Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA… …RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -85.4
with movement W at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 091442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 85.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued all watches and warnings along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Caribbean coast of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 85.4 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, with a slightly slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening. Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. The intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT will be issued under Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT3 and WMO header WTNT33 KNHC. The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -84.6
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 091138 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 84.6W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located inland over Nicaragua near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving across Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua reported a sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) a few hours ago a little after Julia had made landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue near Julia's center and along the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely still occurring along the coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds, but water levels should subside today. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -84.0
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 090851 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala, from the El Salvador/Guatemala border to the Guatemala/Mexico border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.0 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue for the next few hours on the islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. Water levels should be receding on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands as Julia continues moving inland over Nicaragua. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -83.3
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 11A
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 090554 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...STRENGTHENING JULIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 83.3W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to make landfall within the warning area on the coast of Nicaragua shortly, then move across Nicaragua later today. Julia is forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night. Satellite intensity estimates indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible until the center makes landfall in Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are passing west of the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, but tropical storm conditions will continue for these locations over the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading over the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area and should continue through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are likely ongoing along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas and will continue through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area this afternoon into tonight. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -82.7
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 988 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 090233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 82.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.7 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to make landfall on the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected until the center makes landfall in Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday or Sunday night. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina should end in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area starting in the next few hours and continuing into Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -82.0
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 10A
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 082351 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...CENTER OF JULIA PASSING SAN ANDRES AND HEADING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 82.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.0 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until landfall in Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -81.3
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
788 WTNT33 KNHC 082040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 81.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of El Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this evening and tonight, and Julia could become a hurricane while passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening. Julia is also expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua overnight. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, and hurricane conditions are expected this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America this evening into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -80.5
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 9A
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 081747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca * Coast of El Salvador A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today and then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday morning. Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and move near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland over Nicaragua on Sunday, but Julia could still be at or near tropical storm strength when it moves near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Julia is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, and tropical storm conditions are beginning now. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Julia, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Latto
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -79.9
with movement W at 21 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -79.0
with movement W at 21 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 8A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 081152 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 79.0W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches could be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a westward or west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific coast of Central America by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the system is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.7, -78.0
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080851 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 78.0W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has extended the Hurricane Warning south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields, and issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches could be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 78.0 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a westward or west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific coast of Central America by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the system is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY…
As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.7, -77.2
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 7A
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 77.2W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 77.2 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, with a westward motion at a slower forward speed expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -76.1
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 76.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue through Saturday night, with a westward motion at at a slower forward speed expected Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -75.2
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 6A
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
882 WTNT33 KNHC 072348 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 75.2W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 415 MI...680 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 75.2 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 13.0, -74.7
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 072031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)
…JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.