There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:55:20 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

746 
FONT14 KNHC 150847
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:48:28 GMT


Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 09:22:43 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

128 
WTNT24 KNHC 150846
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  92.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  93.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON KARL.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

679 
WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl.  Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.  Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.
 
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 18.6N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 15
the center of Karl was located near 18.6, -93.0
with movement SW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
  
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
is expected to dissipate tonight.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on heavy 
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150239
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  92.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  92.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150240
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst 
faded earlier this afternoon.  Data from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a 
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt.  Therefore, the initial 
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl 
is now a tropical depression.  All global models agree the cyclone 
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of 
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.  
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a 
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.  
The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt.  Model guidance 
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow 
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so.  The 
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and 
dissipating inland by 36 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 19.1N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.1, -92.8
with movement S at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Karl Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150240
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
ARE DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the
coast of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Karl.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h).  
A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate 
by early Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of
Campeche coast through Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.2, -92.6
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142357
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become
a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by 
early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.9
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142037
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A 
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the 
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the 
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of 
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a
tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
decreased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for gradual development through the
weekend while the wave moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
Further development will become unlikely by early next week due to
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.8
with movement S at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY… …HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.4, -92.7
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

128 
WTNT34 KNHC 141446
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
INTO THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
west of Coatzacoalcos to Alvarado.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward 
to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight 
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl 
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early 
Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of 
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm 
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches) 
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with 
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, 
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday 
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with 
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or
this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.9, -92.3
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141149
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 92.3 West. Karl is 
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). Karl is expected 
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of 
southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl 
reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm 
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently
reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40
mph (64 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.2, -92.4
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140845
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the 
center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected 
after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast 
to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently 
reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust of   
54 mph (86 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). 
The station at Cayo Arcas recently reported a pressure of 1005.2 mb 
(29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.4, -92.5
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140535
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to 
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
later today, and this motion should continue through early 
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach 
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. 
Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of 
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or 
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.6, -92.8
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140231
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn
southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday,
and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight
weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches
the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the
coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern
Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -93.1
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132355
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL 
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, 
followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate 
that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.9, -93.5
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132035
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in 
strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by 
weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.2, -93.7
with movement SSE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

930 
WTNT34 KNHC 131745
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 93.7 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to 
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on 
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of 
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late 
Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so 
before Karl reaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.7, -93.9
with movement SSE at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131443
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from 
Alvarado eastward to Ciudad del Carmen. The Tropical Storm Watch 
north of Alvarado has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue through tonight.  Karl is expected 
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts 
of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karl is forecast to gradually lose some strength later today or 
on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42055 located just north of the center 
of Karl recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a 
gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.1, -94.1
with movement SE at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131155
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL 
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West.  Karl is 
moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slightly 
faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then  
expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay 
of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl 
should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico 
late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 
NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a 
minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches). 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also
expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.4
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.5, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Karl is 
nearly stationary currently.  A slow motion toward the southeast 
should begin later today, with Karl then expected to turn southward 
over the Bay of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states 
in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should 
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay 
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130233
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Karl is
nearly stationary.  A slow motion toward the southeast should begin 
early Thursday, with Karl then expected to turn southward over the 
Bay of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in 
Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected on Thursday, but Karl should 
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay 
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.2
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122353
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on
Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.2 West. Karl is moving toward the 
north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  The tropical storm is forecast 
to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-southeast 
is expected to begin by Thursday morning.  A faster generally 
southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and that motion 
should continue through Friday night.  On the forecast track, Karl 
will approach the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by
gradual weakening until landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission indicate 
that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.2, -94.4
with movement N at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122054
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on 
Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  The tropical storm 
is forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the 
south-southeast is expected to begin by Thursday morning.  A
faster generally southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and 
that motion should continue through Friday night.  On the forecast 
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the 
watch area on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by gradual 
weakening until landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located about 30 miles east of the 
center of Karl recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 
km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown