There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Oct 2022 17:55:20 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

746 
FONT14 KNHC 150847
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:48:28 GMT


Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2022 09:22:43 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

128 
WTNT24 KNHC 150846
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  93.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  92.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  93.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON KARL.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL 
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

679 
WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl.  Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.  Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.
 
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 18.6N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE… …LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 15
the center of Karl was located near 18.6, -93.0
with movement SW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
  
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
is expected to dissipate tonight.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on heavy 
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150239
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  92.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  92.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  92.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 

Tropical Depression Karl Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150240
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst 
faded earlier this afternoon.  Data from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a 
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt.  Therefore, the initial 
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl 
is now a tropical depression.  All global models agree the cyclone 
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of 
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.  
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a 
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.  
The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt.  Model guidance 
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow 
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so.  The 
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and 
dissipating inland by 36 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 19.1N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.1, -92.8
with movement S at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Karl Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150240
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
ARE DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the
coast of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Karl.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h).  
A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate 
by early Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of
Campeche coast through Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.2, -92.6
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142357
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become
a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by 
early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING… …HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.9
with movement SSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142037
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A 
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the 
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the 
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of 
southern Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a
tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
decreased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for gradual development through the
weekend while the wave moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
Further development will become unlikely by early next week due to
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.5, -92.8
with movement S at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY… …HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.4, -92.7
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

128 
WTNT34 KNHC 141446
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
INTO THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
west of Coatzacoalcos to Alvarado.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward 
to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight 
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl 
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early 
Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of 
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm 
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches) 
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with 
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, 
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday 
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with 
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or
this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 19.9, -92.3
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141149
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 92.3 West. Karl is 
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). Karl is expected 
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of 
southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl 
reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm 
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently
reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40
mph (64 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.2, -92.4
with movement SE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140845
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the 
center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected 
after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast 
to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently 
reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust of   
54 mph (86 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). 
The station at Cayo Arcas recently reported a pressure of 1005.2 mb 
(29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 14
the center of Karl was located near 20.4, -92.5
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140535
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022
 
...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to 
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
later today, and this motion should continue through early 
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach 
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. 
Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of 
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or 
tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.6, -92.8
with movement SE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140231
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn
southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday,
and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight
weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches
the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the
coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern
Mexico by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -93.1
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132355
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL 
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, 
followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate 
that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 20.9, -93.5
with movement SSE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132035
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in 
strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by 
weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.2, -93.7
with movement SSE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

930 
WTNT34 KNHC 131745
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 93.7 West. Karl is 
moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to 
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on 
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of 
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late 
Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so 
before Karl reaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 21.7, -93.9
with movement SSE at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131443
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from 
Alvarado eastward to Ciudad del Carmen. The Tropical Storm Watch 
north of Alvarado has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue through tonight.  Karl is expected 
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts 
of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karl is forecast to gradually lose some strength later today or 
on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42055 located just north of the center 
of Karl recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a 
gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.1, -94.1
with movement SE at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131155
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL 
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West.  Karl is 
moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slightly 
faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then  
expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay 
of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl 
should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico 
late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 
NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a 
minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches). 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also
expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.4
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 13
the center of Karl was located near 22.5, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
 
...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Karl is 
nearly stationary currently.  A slow motion toward the southeast 
should begin later today, with Karl then expected to turn southward 
over the Bay of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states 
in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should 
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay 
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL NEARLY STATIONARY… …EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.3
with movement Stationary.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130233
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Karl is
nearly stationary.  A slow motion toward the southeast should begin 
early Thursday, with Karl then expected to turn southward over the 
Bay of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in 
Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected on Thursday, but Karl should 
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay 
of Campeche coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.4, -94.2
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122353
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on
Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.2 West. Karl is moving toward the 
north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  The tropical storm is forecast 
to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-southeast 
is expected to begin by Thursday morning.  A faster generally 
southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and that motion 
should continue through Friday night.  On the forecast track, Karl 
will approach the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by
gradual weakening until landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission indicate 
that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.2, -94.4
with movement N at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122054
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on 
Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  The tropical storm 
is forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the 
south-southeast is expected to begin by Thursday morning.  A
faster generally southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and 
that motion should continue through Friday night.  On the forecast 
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the 
watch area on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by gradual 
weakening until landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located about 30 miles east of the 
center of Karl recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 
km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER…
As of 12:35 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 22.0, -94.5
with movement N at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121755
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Special Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today.  A slow motion to the south and
south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster
generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning.  On the
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within
the watch area by Friday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an 
increase to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change 
in strength is forecast overnight followed by gradual weakening 
until landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi/Brown
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.7, -94.7
with movement N at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 94.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
eastward to Frontera.  The Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Rojo to
Tuxpan has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. Karl is 
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue through today.  A slow drift to the south and 
south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster 
generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning.  On the 
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within 
the watch area by Friday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours 
followed by slight weakening before landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN…
As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.5, -94.8
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 3a

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121156
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   3a
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Karl is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue through today.  A slow drift to the 
west and west-southwest is expected to begin later this morning and 
a somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by 
Thursday morning.  On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching 
the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Thursday night.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support 
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional strengthening is expected for the next day or so, 
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.64 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local 
maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Veracruz and 
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night.  Flash flooding with 
mudslides in higher terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…
As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 21.1, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120835
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue through today.  A slow drift to the 
west and west-southwest is expected to begin this evening and a 
somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by 
Thursday morning.  On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching 
the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed 
by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42055, located northeast of the center, 
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 42 mph (68 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local 
maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Vera Cruz and 
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night.  Flash flooding with 
mudslides in higher terrain is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 12
the center of Karl was located near 20.8, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 2A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120543
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
 
...KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 94.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was 
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue through today.  A turn to the west 
and west-southwest is expected this evening and a turn to the 
southwest is forecast by Thursday morning.  On the forecast track, 
Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area 
on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42055 
located to the northeast of the center reported sustained winds of 
36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:
 
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 20.5, -94.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
 
...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
southward to Roca Partida.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn
to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning.  On the forecast
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the
watch area on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:
 
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Karl, located in the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Karl are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 20.1, -94.8
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Karl (AT4/AL142022)

…KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE… …TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 11
the center of Karl was located near 19.6, -94.4
with movement NW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karl Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 112052
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
 
...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.  A gradual turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and
a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning.  On the 
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:
 
*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
 

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 09 Oct 2022 21:35:30 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST… …RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -86.2
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 13A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

013 
WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
 
...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC 
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West.  Julia
is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, with a slightly slower 
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador tonight and Monday.  Julia is expected to dissipate near
the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:
 
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday.  Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under 
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA… …RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -85.4
with movement W at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 091442
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
 
...JULIA MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 85.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has discontinued all watches and
warnings along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Caribbean coast of Honduras.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 85.4 West.  
Julia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue today, with a slightly slower 
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over 
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.  
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the 
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and 
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during 
the next day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical 
storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, 
and El Salvador tonight and Monday.  Julia is expected to dissipate 
near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:
 
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday.  Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
The intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT will be issued under 
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT3 and WMO header WTNT33 KNHC.
The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under 
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY…
As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -84.6
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 091138
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
 
...JULIA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA, STILL AS A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
inland over Nicaragua near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.6 
West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by 
a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast 
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving across 
Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. 
Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of 
Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today as Julia 
moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical 
storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. 
Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night 
and dissipate by Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua
reported a sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) a few hours ago a 
little after Julia had made landfall.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue near Julia's center 
and along the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this 
morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of 
Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area
on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely still occurring 
along the coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds, but water 
levels should subside today.  Large and damaging waves will likely 
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.4, -84.0
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090851
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
 
...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning
with a Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands.
 
The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala, from the El
Salvador/Guatemala border to the Guatemala/Mexico border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located 
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.0 West. Julia is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to 
the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of 
Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the 
eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or 
along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on 
Monday and Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua, 
but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off 
the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to 
weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by 
Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles 
(185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua recently 
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the coast of
Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will
continue for the next few hours on the islands of San Andres,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina.
 
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area through this morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of 
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area 
beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area 
on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging
waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
Water levels should be receding on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands as Julia continues moving inland over
Nicaragua.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -83.3
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 11A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090554
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022
 
...STRENGTHENING JULIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located 
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Julia is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion 
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is 
expected to make landfall within the warning area on the coast of 
Nicaragua shortly, then move across Nicaragua later today. Julia is 
forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El 
Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.
 
Satellite intensity estimates indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is possible until the center makes landfall in 
Nicaragua. Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is 
forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific 
coast of Nicaragua late today or tonight. Julia is forecast to 
weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday 
night or Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are passing west of the Colombian 
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, but tropical 
storm conditions will continue for these locations over the next few 
hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading over the coast of 
Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area and should continue 
through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the 
coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area through this 
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are likely ongoing along the Caribbean 
coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas and will 
continue through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through 
this morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area this 
afternoon into tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, 
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -82.7
with movement W at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 988 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090233
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...CENTER OF JULIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.7 West. Julia is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A continued westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to make landfall on the coast of Nicaragua during the 
next several hours, move across Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move 
near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and 
Guatemala through Monday and Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected until the center makes landfall 
in Nicaragua.  Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but 
it is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the 
Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday or Sunday night.  Julia 
should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by 
Monday night or Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions on the Colombian islands of San Andres,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina should end in the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area starting in the next few hours
and continuing into Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch
area early Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and early 
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of 
Honduras within the watch area tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.  Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Hurricane Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.5, -82.0
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 989 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Julia Public Advisory Number 10A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 082351
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...CENTER OF JULIA PASSING SAN ANDRES AND HEADING FOR THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located 
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.0 West.  Julia is moving 
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A continued westward motion 
with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is
expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across
Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts
of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until landfall in Nicaragua. 
Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is forecast to 
still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of 
Nicaragua late Sunday.  Julia should weaken to a tropical depression 
on Monday and dissipate by Monday night.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from 
the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 
115 miles (185 km) from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina.  
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua 
within the hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday 
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next 
several hours.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast 
of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.  Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -81.3
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

788 
WTNT33 KNHC 082040
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
OVERNIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the entire coast of El Salvador.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 81.3 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A continued westward 
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the 
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is 
expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua overnight, move across 
Nicaragua on Sunday, and then move near or along the Pacific coasts 
of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Monday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast this evening and 
tonight, and Julia could become a hurricane while passing near San 
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening.  Julia is also 
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua 
overnight.  Weakening is expected once Julia moves inland, but it is 
forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific 
coast of Nicaragua late Sunday.  Julia should weaken to a tropical 
depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, and
hurricane conditions are expected this evening.  Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area overnight and early Sunday morning, with
tropical storm conditions beginning by this evening.  Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane watch area early Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.  Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America this evening into Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -80.5
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 081747
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...JULIA HEADING TOWARD NICARAGUA IN A HURRY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
* Coast of El Salvador
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 80.5 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today and
then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday morning.
Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and move near
or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador
Sunday night and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a 
hurricane later today.  Weakening is forecast after the center moves 
inland over Nicaragua on Sunday, but Julia could still be at or near 
tropical storm strength when it moves near or along the Pacific 
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and 
Monday.  Julia is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday 
and dissipate by Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
Data from a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission 
indicate that the minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, and
tropical storm conditions are beginning now.  Hurricane conditions 
are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane 
warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions 
beginning by tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the 
coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area early Sunday 
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
early Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Tuesday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.  Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
America later today into Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Julia, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.6, -79.9
with movement W at 21 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -79.0
with movement W at 21 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 081152
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JULIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras,
and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches
could be required for portions of these areas later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 
latitude 12.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.  Julia is moving toward 
the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general motion should continue 
through tonight, followed by a westward or west-northwestward motion 
at a slower forward speed on Sunday and Sunday night. On the 
forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over 
San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the 
coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.  Julia or its remnants will 
then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific coast of Central 
America by Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid
weakening is forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is
likely to become a remnant low on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that the minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.7, -78.0
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080851
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...JULIA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT 
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has extended the Hurricane Warning south 
of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields, and issued a Tropical Storm 
Warning from south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, 
and El Salvador should monitor the progress of Julia, as watches 
could be required for portions of these areas later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was 
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 78.0 West. Julia is 
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion 
should continue through tonight, followed by a westward or 
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed on Sunday and 
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected 
to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening 
and then reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or 
its remnants will then turn west-northwestward near the Pacific 
coast of Central America by Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and the system is 
expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is 
forecast after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to 
become a remnant low on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area Sunday
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Elsewhere in Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
in Central America through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY…
As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8
the center of Julia was located near 12.7, -77.2
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080551
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 77.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was 
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 77.2 West. Julia is 
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion 
should continue through tonight, with a westward motion at a slower 
forward speed expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast 
track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San 
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast 
of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn 
west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.
 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast 
while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the 
next day or so, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by 
the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands 
and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated 
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a 
remnant low or dissipate by Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC 
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of 
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with 
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane 
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the 
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm 
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible 
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday 
morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua 
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday. 
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras 
within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are 
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and 
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -76.1
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080240
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h).  This general motion 
should continue through Saturday night, with a westward motion at 
at a slower forward speed expected Sunday and Sunday night.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or 
over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then 
reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.  Julia or its remnants 
will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.
 
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast 
while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the 
next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane 
by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia 
Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua.  Quick weakening is 
anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to 
become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.8, -75.2
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

882 
WTNT33 KNHC 072348
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JULIA 
HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 75.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 415 MI...680 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 75.2 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia
or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central
America by Monday.
 
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast while Julia 
moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or 
two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time 
it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and 
reaches the coast of Nicaragua.  Quick weakening is anticipated 
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a 
remnant low or dissipate by Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:
 
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 13.0, -74.7
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Julia Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 072031
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas.  A
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
Bluefields.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward motion 
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday 
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to 
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday 
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.  
Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over 
Central America by Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is 
expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over 
San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of 
Nicaragua.  Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland 
on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by 
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall 
accumulations through early Monday:
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...   
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, 
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 
inches, isolated 12 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides 
through this weekend. 
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
 
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Julia (AT3/AL132022)

…JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 7
the center of Julia was located near 12.9, -73.9
with movement W at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.