Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…
As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29
the center of Eleven was located near 17.8, -36.1
with movement NW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290844
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 36.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 36.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and a general northwestward motion is expected until the depression
dissipates in a couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today.  Weakening should
begin on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a
trough of low pressure within a couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 290231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  35.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  35.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  35.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N  36.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N  38.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N  39.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  35.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290232
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 
There's been little change of note with the depression this 
evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the 
northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent 
ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 
25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, 
but this may be generous.
There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the 
depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track 
forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any 
thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue 
heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day 
or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly 
get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should 
cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all 
dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near 
the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.2N  35.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 20.7N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG…
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28
the center of Eleven was located near 17.2, -35.6
with movement NW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290231
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 35.6W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 35.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
a general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected until the 
depression dissipates in a few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

745
ABNT20 KNHC 282316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 282035
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  34.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  34.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  34.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.2N  35.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N  37.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N  38.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N  39.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.5N  38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N  34.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28
the center of Eleven was located near 16.7, -34.7
with movement NNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282035
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 34.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven 
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 34.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 
km/h) and a general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over 
the next several days until the system dissipates.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is 
expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by 
Saturday.  
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin